“In the past four years, a rogue president’ who has retaliated against his own people has treated us and others more and more badly.” Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif wrote on Twitter on January 7. “What is disturbing is that this person also has unrestricted nuclear strike rights-this is related to the security of the entire international community.”
After Trump lost the election, the outside world has been worrying about whether he will detonate the Iranian issue at the end of his term. On January 7, crazy supporters broke into Capitol Hill. This riot, which caused at least 5 deaths and dozens of injuries, became a staggering piece in American history. It also pushed Trump, who had condoned this group. The darkest abyss in the past four years.
People cannot help asking, will Trump, who has fallen into the darkest abyss, choose to go to war on Iran? The answer may not be Trump himself.
Persian Gulf Storm
The U.S. military has sent a clear message of deterrence by demonstrating its ability to deploy an overwhelming combat force in a short period of time. “On January 7, a statement from the U.S. Air Force stated. On that day, two U.S. B-52 bombers set off from Minot Air Force Base in North Dakota, flew for 36 hours, and returned after arriving in the Persian Gulf. Since November 21 last year, the B-52 bomber performed its fourth mission within Iranian airspace.
The Trump administration has recently pressed Iran to step by step. Since December last year, the United States has issued a series of new sanctions against Iran, with nearly 1,000 sanctions against Iran.
On the occasion of the anniversary of the assassination of Senior Revolutionary Guard General Soleimani, Trump once “beaten” Iran, accusing it of instructing agents to fire rockets at the US Embassy in Baghdad. He wrote on Twitter: “I offered Iran some ‘friendly and healthy’ advice: If an American is killed, I will hold Iran accountable.”
Another worrying sign is that the Acting Secretary of Defense Miller announced at the end of December that the United States would not withdraw the Nimitz aircraft carrier and its strike team from the Middle East-a a radical departure from the Pentagon’s previous decision to request it to return. Not only that, at the beginning of the new year, the United States also deployed the Georgia nuclear submarine specially equipped with 154 Tomahawk cruise missiles to the Persian Gulf.
In response, Iran’s nuclear program is also increasing. At the end of last year, Iran’s senior nuclear scientist Fahnu Rizad was assassinated and the Iranian parliament passed the “Anti-Sanctions Strategy Law” in a high profile, legalizing uranium enrichment activities. On January 4, a spokesperson for the Iranian government stated that Iran would increase the abundance of enriched uranium to 20%.
US intelligence analysts also said in recent days that they found Iran’s air defense forces, maritime forces, and other security forces in a state of high alert. They also said that Iran has transferred more short-range missiles and drones to Iraq.
Will Trump go to war with Iran?
During Trump’s four years in office, it seems that there has never been a sunny day over the Persian Gulf. In the past two months, Iran has become a “punching bag” for Trump’s defeat. Some experts believe that Trump, who behaves volatilely, will resort to “relentless tricks” to attack Iran at the end of his term.
“In the last Game Scene’, Trump looks like an animal that has been forced into a desperate situation and is very injured.” Northwestern University International and Regional Research Center assistant, U.S.-Iran foreign policy expert Danny Puster Speaking to Al Jazeera, “We know that his behavior is very unstable, and the most reckless attack may not have arrived.”
A former U.S. military analyst who disclosed the Pentagon’s documents, Ellsberg, wrote in the Guardian on January 7 that in Vietnam and Iraq, U.S. military intelligence agencies often provide false information to the president, which provides information to attack opponents. An excuse. In addition, they will also recommend the implementation of covert operations, the purpose of which is to provoke the opponent to counterattack as “retaliation.” Ellsberg suspects that there is also a “contingency plan” directed by the president to attack Iran in the safe of the White House.
According to the U.S. Constitution, Congress has the power to declare war, mobilize, and support the military, and the president needs Congress’s authorization to launch a war.
However, in past history, there are many examples of the Korean War and the Vietnam War where the president cuts first and then plays. Some voices believe that if Trump insists on going his own way, he still has the power and means to achieve his goals.
However, Wu Xuanxuan, assistant professor of political science and international relations at Old Dominion University in the United States, said that one of Trump’s “America First” diplomatic manifestations is how to reduce overseas spending and reduce the trade surplus. He is not interested in spending money to fight overseas.”
“Even if it is to solve the domestic political dilemma, under normal circumstances, Trump is more willing and better at launching a few campaigns than launching overseas conflicts, sending tweets, and gathering and inciting his supporters.” Wu Xuanxuan said.
In the last days of Trump’s tenure, it seems that even his loyal aides have turned away from Germany, and the outside world even questioned whether his own will can be successfully communicated. More importantly, a congressional riot has already put Trump on the presidential “end of the road” ahead of schedule.
On January 7, U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Pelosi and Senate Minority Leader and Democrat Chuck Schumer issued a statement calling for Vice President Pence to oust the current President Trump. Pelosi said, “Although there are only 13 days left in the Trump administration, any one of these days may become a “horror show” for the United States.” Schumer also said that the riots in the Capitol were “incited by the president. “In response to the “rebellion” in the United States, “Trump should no longer be in power for a day.”
“After the riots in the U.S. Congress, Trump is less likely to launch an attack on Iran.” Wu Xuanxuan pointed out, “On the one hand, he finally realized that he might have played with fire, and for the first time condemned the violence that hit Congress and promised to ensure the regime With a smooth handover, it can basically be considered that Trump has admitted defeat (probably in exchange for Pence not to initiate the recall case). On the other hand, key staff members will either resign or stay to ensure Trump does not make more crazy moves. .”
“After this riot, in the next two weeks, Washington (Washington) and Congress will be extra vigilant to prevent accidents from recurring.” Wu Xuanxuan said. Speaker of the House of Representatives Pelosi said on January 8 that she had talked to the top Pentagon to ensure that the emotionally unstable President Trump could not launch a nuclear strike during the last ten days of his term. However, the US media pointed out that Congress has no right to prevent Trump from pressing the nuclear button, because the ability to quickly launch nuclear weapons is the core of the US nuclear deterrence strategy, and the US president has the only right to launch nuclear weapons.
Israel is a variable
“Even though the two sides seem to be at war, facing Trump’s general situation, Iran has no reason to provoke a military conflict at this time.” Wu Xuanxuan said that the Trump administration’s current tough attitude is on the one hand the need for domestic political propaganda. On the other hand, it may also be for the future Biden regime.
However, the tense regional situation provides some legitimacy for Biden to return to peace talks in the future.
Since the Islamic Revolution in Iran in 1979, Biden may know more about this country than any American president. The New Yorker reported that Biden has personally dealt with senior Iranian officials for decades. After the U.S. election, Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif admitted in an interview that he had held several meetings with Biden when he was Iran’s representative to the United Nations. The two were not entirely friends, but these meetings can be said to be “based on mutual Respectful professional relationship”. However, Biden does have Zarif’s personal email address and even his mobile phone number.
Since the results of the U.S. election were announced, Iran seems to have been hoping that Biden’s coming to power will bring about change. However, the assassination of Iran’s senior nuclear scientist Fahrizad in November last year embarrassed Iran. Iranian officials and many Western media believed that Israel was behind the assassination, but Israel did not admit it.
Several media outlets disclosed that Israel has been preparing for possible retaliation by Iran for the assassination of nuclear scientists. In Iran, more and more people are calling for retaliation against Israel. However, the Rouhani government chose “strategic patience” and said it would choose “appropriate timing” to retaliate.
“The only risk is whether Israel will decide to take preemptive action at this time.” Wu Xuanxuan believes that if Israel takes action, the United States may not have time to take care of it or allow it to connive.
On January 2, Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif stated that new intelligence from Iraq showed that Israel was planning to attack US troops in Iraq with the purpose of provoking a war between the United States and Iran. Zarif warned the outgoing Trump “beware of traps” on Twitter, “Any spark will cause a strong counterattack.”
A “critical moment” in US-Iran relations
In 11 days, Biden will be sworn in as the next President of the United States. In June this year, Iran will also hold a presidential election. There is a view that because Trump’s “extreme pressure” policy has pushed the Iranian policy circle to conservative, Iran is likely to be a hardline president in the future. Less than six months are left for the moderate President Rouhani, and these six months will become a diplomatic window for the restoration of US-Iran relations.
“The Bush Administration-at least in terms of aggressive remarks, are very similar to the current situation when Israel and Saudi Arabia also wanted (the United States) to take military action against Iran.” Danny Pustel of Northwestern University gave an example to Al Jazeera. Explain, “Who is in power in the United States and Iran, this issue has a major impact on the prospects of both sides’ diplomacy.”
Bush’s successor, Obama, reached a comprehensive agreement on the Iranian nuclear issue with Rouhani during his term. Both sides agreed to international contacts rather than complete “decoupling.” In May 2018, Trump, who took office for just over a year, announced that he would withdraw from this hard-won agreement and gradually resume sanctions against Iran.
At the end of December last year, 150 Democrats in the US House of Representatives issued a joint letter urging the future Biden administration to return to the Iran nuclear agreement. The letter reads, “We have always supported the prompt adoption of necessary diplomatic steps to restore restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program so that both the United States and Iran will comply with the Iran nuclear agreement as a starting point for further negotiations.”
“I think this is a very critical moment in US-Iranian relations.” Pustel said, “At this moment, there may be an opportunity to exclude war from the options and find a solution that can at least solve the core issue of Iran’s nuclear program. Diplomatic plan.”
Trump refuses to testify during the Senate impeachment trial
Democrats in the U.S. House of Representatives on February 4 asked former President Trump to testify for his defense during the Senate impeachment trial. In this regard, a Trump adviser said that Trump will not attend to testify during the impeachment trial.
According to a report by the Associated Press on February 4, shortly after the Democratic Party made the request, Trump’s adviser Jason Miller denounced the trial as violating the constitution and said Trump would not attend to testify. Earlier, Trump’s lawyers submitted a document to the Senate on February 2 denying allegations of Trump’s “sedition”. On the same day, the Democratic impeachment representative of the House of Representatives submitted an 80-page briefing on the impeachment lawsuit and believed that former President Trump should be convicted.
According to the report analysis, although Democrats have no power to force Trump to participate in testimony, their purpose is to make the violence that occurred in Congress on January 6 to be recorded in history and make Trump responsible for his remarks.
The impeachment trial will begin on February 9. Trump has also become the first president in American history to be impeached twice during his term. On January 6, when the Congress was counting the electoral votes in the presidential election, Trump supporters violently stormed the Congress, killing at least five people. In his speech earlier in the day, Trump called on his supporters to “do their best” to change the outcome of the election.
According to the impeachment procedure, two-thirds of the senators in the final verdict must agree to the conviction before the impeachment can take effect.
Biden delivered his first foreign policy speech after taking office: Ready to strengthen cooperation with China
At 14:45 pm on February 4, after meeting with officials of the State Department, US President Biden delivered his first foreign policy speech after taking office. In nearly 20 minutes, Biden first emphasized: “The United States is back.” Said that the United States will work hard to restore relations with NATO allies and Japan and South Korea. On the premise of ensuring that US economic interests and intellectual property rights are fully protected, the United States is ready to strengthen cooperation with China.
Biden said that the United States and its allies are paying close attention to the situation in Myanmar, calling on the military to abandon force, release detained senior government officials as soon as possible, ensure that the rights of the Myanmar people are not violated, and restore domestic communication restrictions. Sanctions.
In addition, Biden said that U.S. Secretary of Defense Austin and Secretary of State Brinken will work together to re-examine the U.S. military strategic deployment in the world, suspend the military redeployment plan in Germany, and take measures to end the long-lasting and serious cause in Yemen as soon as possible. The military conflict between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis in a humanitarian crisis. Biden also said that the United States and Russia have just reached an agreement to extend the “New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty” for five years to 2026. The United States is committed to effective arms control.
Biden emphasized that the new U.S. foreign policy is the domestic policy of the United States, and the essence of foreign policy is to protect the interests of the American people.
Biden turned his gun failed Obama
On January 20, Democrat Biden was sworn in as the 59th President of the United States in Washington, which also kicked off the prelude to the “turning out of chaos” that the elites of the two parties and the media under their command were expecting. On his first day in power, Biden lived up to expectations and signed 17 consecutive executive orders to liquidate Trump’s “political legacy.” Nine of them are directly related to the decisions made during Trump’s tenure, including returning to the WHO and the Paris Climate Agreement, stopping the construction of the U.S.-Mexico border wall, and revoking the U.S.-Canada “Keystone XL” oil pipeline construction permit. In addition to these, the Biden administration is also preparing to return to the Iran nuclear agreement.
On May 8, 2018, Trump announced his withdrawal from the treaty. Now Biden has released a rare positive signal and has received universal support from all countries in the world, of course, Israel is an exception. As early as the early stage of negotiations on the Iranian nuclear agreement, Israel vigorously opposed it. During the Trump era, the White House gave Israel this “great gift”, but now Biden wants to take it back, which naturally makes Tel Aviv highly dissatisfied. Guangming.com reported on January 27 that on January 26 local time, the Chief of Staff of the Israeli Defense Forces, Aviv Kohavey, publicly warned Biden that it would be a “wrong choice” for the United States to return to the Iran nuclear agreement, and said harshly. Said that it “has instructed the Israeli military to re-formulate its military plan against Iran.”
Kohavey is the highest general in the army, and his words are also the attitude of Netanyahu’s cabinet. Perhaps Netanyahu himself is unwilling to over-stimulate the United States, and he made Kohavey stand up. As we all know, the influence of Christian “evangelicals” and Israeli lobbying groups in the United States is extremely large, which naturally includes both houses of Congress.
According to the three-dimensional system, if Congress is constrained, the president’s road to governance will be extremely difficult. A large number of Democratic Party members and sponsors are also Jews. For example, Bloomberg, the founder of Bloomberg, is a Jew, and he once participated with Biden. Primary election within the party. Perhaps it was precisely because of pressure from Israel and its allies that the second-day Kohavey warned Biden, the latter turned his “gun”.
The Associated Press reported on January 27 that the Pentagon announced on the same day that the U.S. military had sent a B-52 strategic bomber to the Middle East to deter “potential aggression.” Although the Pentagon did not “name by name”, there is no doubt that the U.S. deterred The target is Iran. If Biden really cannot withstand the pressure from Tel Aviv and domestic pro-Israeli forces, the Democratic Party’s plan to return to the Iran nuclear agreement is likely to be stranded, and Obama may be disappointed this time.